Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash

In September, Swedish holds a general election, and as crime has become a core political concern during the last decade, we will most plausible have another “law-and-order election”. For several years, public opinion surveys have shown that crime is perceived as one of the most pressing societal problems in Sweden, alongside growing concern about organised crime. At the same time, Swedish criminal policy has moved in a more punitive direction, with longer sentences and broader use of imprisonment (nowadays also for youths). In an ongoing research project, we examine whether this political development is supported by the public.

In our recent research, we examine public attitudes and emotions related to crime and punishment, and how these views and emotions can be understood. Using data from the 2025 National SOM Survey, we analyse general attitudes towards punishment and how those vary within the Swedish population. We understand and measure punitiveness as a general orientation towards wanting more, longer, or harsher punishment.

Our findings show that a substantial share of the Swedish population expresses support for tougher criminal sanctions. Around seven in ten respondents favour longer prison sentences, and a similarly large proportion support sentencing 16-year-olds as adults in cases of serious violent crime. Many also believe that prison conditions are too lenient. At first glance, our results appear to confirm the image of a highly punitive public.

At the same time, however, these punitive views coexist with strong support for rehabilitation and reintegration. A large majority believe that rehabilitation should be available even for people convicted of serious crimes, and most agree that individuals who have served their sentences should be welcomed back into society. When respondents are confronted with trade-offs between increasing convictions and legal safeguards, many prioritise due process over harsher enforcement. These results suggest that public attitudes toward punishment are not simply punitive or lenient, but often internally complex.

We also find that punitive attitudes vary systematically across social groups. Education, age, and place of residence all matter to some extent, but the strongest and most consistent differences are ideological. People who place themselves on the political right are considerably more punitive than those on the left. This pattern holds across almost all dimensions of punishment, from sentence length to views on prison conditions and rehabilitation. Importantly, however, even among those on the political left, support for longer sentences is rather widespread.

Beyond ideology, punitive attitudes are closely linked to how people relate to society more broadly. Lower levels of interpersonal trust and lower confidence in political institutions are associated with stronger punitive orientations. Similarly, certain forms of future-oriented worry – especially about crime and immigration – correlate with higher punitiveness, while concerns about climate change or social inequality instead are associated with low levels of punitiveness. This suggests that punitive attitudes are, at least partly, related to broader perceptions of the social order.

Taken together, our results suggest that support for harsher punishment should not be interpreted as a simple demand for repression. Instead, punitive attitudes are deeply intertwined with ideology, trust, and views of society at large. This complexity matters: if criminal policy is shaped solely in response to perceived demands for harsher punishment, it risks overlooking the public’s simultaneous commitment to rehabilitation, reintegration, and legal safeguards.

About the author